29 February 2024


Stumble Upon Toolbar

20 April 2023

Lehigh's Levi Looking to Last

My mother-in-law called me excitedly Wednesday afternoon to tell me that her physical therapist's brother - a minor league pitcher - was getting promoted to the majors with the Reds.  His brother is Levi Stoudt.  What's more, she thought I would take a particular interest, which of course I did, because Stoudt is a graduate of Lehigh University, my alma mater.  

Lehigh is not exactly a pipeline for famous of MLB players, or, really, any fame, for that matter, outside of engineering.  Our most famous alumni are, in the order I can think of them, Lee Iacocca, CJ McCollum and Don Most (Ralph Malph from Happy Days, though he never finished his degree), which is about as weird a trio as you could hope to conceive.  As for baseball, well, basically nobody.  A cold-weather school, Lehigh cannot hope to produce the numbers and quality of players that come from places like Texas, California, Florida and Arizona, to name a few.  

There is only a handful of players in the minors right now from Lehigh, none of whom seems especially close to making the majors, including Stoudt, for that matter.  He had given up 9 walks and 8 hits, including 3 homers, in just 11 innings at AAA before his callup yesterday, so it really was kind of a surprise that they picked him for this spot start.  The next best former Lehigh "prospect" is probably Mason Black, another pitcher taken in the 3rd round of the draft, like Stoudt, but just getting his first taste of AA ball as a 23-year old this year, so he's a ways off, at best.  

For Stoudt's part, well, he did not exactly cover himself in glory yesterday, getting roughed up by the powerhouse Tampa Bay Rays for 7 runs on 9 hits - including Yandy Diaz' 6th homer - in just 4 innings of work.  He walked one and struck out 3.  His bullpen did surprisingly well, allowing just one more run in 5 innings of work, but the offense didn't score a run, so he took the loss.  

His StatCast page tells the tale: He evidently has decent stuff, a fastball that averaged 93mph with good spin and a curve at 78, plus a slider at 83 and a changeup at 80mph, but he had trouble locating them.  He allowed 10 "hard-hit" balls, including seven at more than 100mph, which means they were generally coming back at him harder than he was throwing them in, always a recipe for trouble. His slider and fastball seem to have good movement, but the curve and change were flat and did not fool anyone, and even the slider seemed to get hung up in the zone quite a bit, like the one Diaz hit into the left field stands.  He allowed an average exit velocity of 95.1 mph.  For comparison, only Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez had a higher AvgEV last year.  The launch angle of 18 degrees and barrel rate of 11.8 he allowed must have made it a bit like watching, say, Paul Goldschmidt come to the plate... for every at-bat.  

So...it was not a great start, by any stretch, but then, the Reds are not a great team, by any stretch!  They're "only" 7-12 right now, but nobody would be surprised if they lost 100+ games again this year, I don't think.  The Cincinnati team has a collective 5.36 ERA that is somehow only 5th worst in the majors right now, so it's not like most of the competition is particularly stiff.  Plus, if the "scramble" you see in the video to get that home run ball that Diaz hit is any indication, there are only a few thousand folks in attendance at Great American Ballpark most nights anyway, so it's not like there are many people there to boo him if things get out of hand.  He should get a few more chances to prove himself before the year is out.  

Lehigh History Lesson:

Before Stoudt debuted yesterday, the only Lehigh alumnus to make the majors in almost the last 40 years was Matt McBride (no relation to Bake, to my knowledge).  Matt had attended Liberty High School in Bethlehem, PA, a few blocks from where I lived from 2002-2013, and then went to Lehigh in the early 2000s and just dominated Patriot League competition, especially in 2006, when he hit .417 with power, patience and speed.  He had 19 doubles, 12 homers, 21 walks and 22 steals in just 56 games, and as a catcher, no less!  Five-tool catchers tend to get noticed by scouts, even in the Patriot League.  

McBride got drafted as a supplemental 2nd round pick by Cleveland, ahead of Chris Davis, Justin Turner and Doug Fister, among many others who went on to much better careers in MLB.  (Other than McBride, Stoudt and Black, nobody from Lehigh has ever been drafted higher than the 10th round.)  

McBride only spent as couple of seasons in the minors as a regular catcher.  He caught only 16 of 110 would-be-base-stealers and had 16 passed balls at Single A and AA in 2007.  As a result, the organization turned him into a corner outfielder and firstbaseman, where his bat did not play as well.  He hit for average and some power in the high elevations of the PCL, but it never translated to the majors.  In the end, McBride got fewer than 200 total major league at-bats, spread out over four seasons between 2012 and 2016.  He hit .201 with 4 HR despite playing more games at Coors Field than anywhere else.  He finished up his last two years playing for his home-town Lehigh Valley IronPigs, not very well, but still showing flashes of the power that got him drafted, hitting .235 with 19 HR in just 108 games combined in 2018-19.  

The last, possibly only good MLB player before that was Paul Hartzell, who somehow has a ~6,500 word bio on SABR's website, despite really only being a decent swingman for 3 of his 4 full seasons in the 70s.  Among his top 10 comparable players listed on Baseball-Reference, most have no SABR bio at all, and the three who do have less than half as much written about them.  They do have some great nicknames, though:

Similar Pitchers
  1. Speed Martin (975.7)
  2. Peaches Davis (971.4)
  3. Gene Schott (968.8)
  4. Henderson Alvarez III (965.9)
  5. Willie the Knuck Ramsdell (965.1)
  6. Jim Willis (964.6)
  7. Steel Arm Tyler (964.4)*
  8. Tom Poholsky (963.4)
  9. Bill Parsons (962.7)
  10. Little Joe Yeager (959.2)

 * Not to be confused with Tungsten Arm O'Doyle.  

Hartzell got injured in 1979 or 1980 - he blamed having to go back and forth from starting to relief all the time - and was soon out of baseball, but tried a brief comeback in 1984.  

Hartzell was coached at Lehigh by another alum, the only other Lehigh player to appear in the majors for the previous half-century: Craig Anderson.  Anderson has the ignominious distinction of being arguably the worst* player on the 1962 Mets, which, for a team that famously lost 120 of 160 games,  is really saying something.  [For the record, Anderson amassed -2.7 bWAR, far below the second worst player (Gus Bell at -1.5) and pitcher (Ray Daviault, at -1.2)].   

* Realistically, Anderson couldn't have been the worst player on that team, or even the worst pitcher, or they would not have allowed him to pitch 131 innings.  He just managed to do the least to help the team win with all the innings he was given.  But if Herb Moford or Larry Foss or Vinegar Bend Mizell had actually had a better chance of getting batters out, I'm sure Casey Stengel would have handed the ball to one of them a lot more often than he did.  

Anderson was their "closer", before anyone knew what that was, going 3-17 with 4 Saves in 10 chances, though this was years before the Save stat would be codified.  Starter Roger Craig had 3, and the whole rest of the team had only three combined, one each for three different pitchers. Anderson pitched in parts of three other seasons in the majors outside of that year with the fledgling Mets, going 3-6 and allowing 31 Earned Runs in about 61 innings of work.  He finished his baseball playing career in the minors, having some up and down years in places like Buffalo and Indianapolis, but never made it back to the majors after age 25 and was out of baseball at 27.   

For what it's worth, apparently Lehigh's athletic department hands out the Anderson-Hartzell Pitching Award to its best pitcher each year, so I guess these two are still thought highly of on South Mountain.  Hartzell in particular has helped with a group that assists players in their transition from pro sports back into the "real world" which is pretty cool.  

 And, basically for the last century, that's all there is. Someone named Whitey Ock made one start in 1935, going 0-for-3 with a walk.  About a dozen players in the 1920s and before hailed from Lehigh, most of them for only a handful of games.  No Lehigh alum has played even 100 games in the majors as a position player in over 100 years, and as for pitching, outside of Anderson and Hartzell, the other 5 pitchers who have ever pitched after attending Lehigh - including Stoudt - have not totaled 100 major league innings.   

The last Lehigh alum to play 100+ games in the majors was Babe Twombly, presumably so-called because he was the younger brother of George Twombly (not a Lehigh grad), who spent parts of five seasons in the majors, mostly during World War I.  Babe was actually pretty decent, hitting .377 one year and .304 overall in about half the games of the 1920 and 1921 seasons with the Cubs, but he evidently liked the West Coast better and spent most of the rest of the decade playing for Los Angeles or Hollywood or Seattle in the Pacific Coast League.  Fellow Lehigh alum, the somehow-unrelated Cy Twombly, also pitched in the majors in 1921 - briefly and poorly, though he was proud of the fact that he retired Babe Ruth both times he faced him - before playing several seasons in the minors and eventually going on to become a beloved head of the athletic department at Washington & Lee in Lexington, VA.    

Harry "Moose" McCormick reaped a modicum of success from major league fields in his time, playing over 400 games spread out among five seasons between 1904 and 1913.  He appears to have only attended Lehigh briefly in 1904, graduating from there despite spending most of his college years at Bucknell.  He was a pinch hitter and spot starter in the outfield for John McGraw's Giants, and even got to play in a couple of World Series, both in losing efforts.  I believe he's the only Lehigh man to ever play in the Fall Classic.  

The most prolific, if not the best, player to ever make the majors from Lehigh's hallowed halls was Charlie Carr.  He played just over 500 games in the early 1900s and jumped to the Federal League as a 37-year old in 1914 despite being out of the majors for almost a decade at that point.  He leads just about all Lehigh grads in most offensive counting stats, except walks and caught stealing, and the latter only because his career was so long ago that they didn't yet think to count those.   

And that right there is the whole of Lehigh's legacy to major league baseball.  Here's hoping Levi Stoudt is on his way to changing that.  

Stumble Upon Toolbar

17 April 2023


Stumble Upon Toolbar

10 February 2023


Stumble Upon Toolbar

31 October 2022

YearEx. Inn. Games11+ IP12+ IP13+ IP14+ IP


Stumble Upon Toolbar

04 October 2022


Stumble Upon Toolbar

26 April 2022


Stumble Upon Toolbar

16 February 2021

Bauer's Powers Questioned

Controversial pitching ace Trevor Bauer signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers last week, which was remarkable on a number of levels:

  • Bauer only secured a three-year deal, whereas most 30-year olds coming off a career year might be inclined to try to broker a deal for much longer. 
  • Bauer had talked about wanting to pitch every 4th day instead of every 5.  With a rotation that also consists of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Bueller, David Price and promising young pitchers in Jose Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, it's hard to imagine the Dodgers skipping one or more of them to give Bauer an extra turn, or otherwise messing with their schedules to satisfy him.  Kerhsaw in particular is supposedly a creature of routine, and presumably has the clout needed to thwart any such plans.  
  • There had also been talk of Bauer wanting to garner distinction as the highest paid player in the game at least for this year, and possibly next.  This deal doesn't quite get him there, but Year 2 could really be a doozy in that regard.  
  • He gets a $10 million signing bonus.  In the first year of the deal he's earning $28 million, and the second will earn him $32 million.  However, his employ for 2022 remains to be seen because...
  • ...he has opt-out clauses after each year.  

There are also caveats about the team deferring his 2021 salary if he opts out after this year, and the buyouts he'd receive if opting out ($2M for 2021, $15M after 2022), so he could effectively earn $85 million for two years' work, or $102M if he sticks around for all three.  

Assuming he does well and enjoys himself in 2021, it's hard to imagine him turning down a guaranteed additional $47 million for one more year's work, but I guess you never know.  I suppose if he's lousy in 2021 he's got even more reason to stay.  

Bauer evidently does not care for long term commitments, stating that he prefers "flexibility" and not being despised by the fanbase when he's still earning huge piles of money even as his skills erode and he turns into a pitching machine in his late 30s.  I'm paraphrasing here. 

Of course, if he's lousy as soon as 2021 or 2022, he'll be plenty despised anyway.  

Was He really That Good???

And make no mistake: There is a chance that he will in fact be lousy in 2021.  Or at least that he'll be mediocre.  That may sound like an odd claim when discussing the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, but stick with me here:

Bauer won the 2020 NL CYA by going 5-4 with an NL-leading 1.73 ERA.  He had 100 K's against only 17 walks in 73 innings pitched.  He led the Senior Circuit in WHIP, Hits/9IP, adjusted ERA (5th best all-time and 3rd best since the Dead Ball Era), shutouts and complete games (2 each).  

If you clicked on the ERA+ link above, then you may have noticed another name on that list: Shane Beiber, former teammate of Bauer's in Cleveland, who won the AL CYA in 2020 and whose adjusted ERA of 281 is 2nd since the Dead Ball Era, behind only Pedro Martinez' amazing Y2K campaign.  

In fact, if you look at that list again, you'll see something very curious: Among the top 21 names/seasons on the list, four of them are from 2020.  Most are all-time greats, though there are a few anomalies, specifically:

  • Tim Keefe in 1880, who holds the top spot despite appearing in only 12 of his team's 83 games and pitching only 105 innings, and 
  • Dutch Leonard, a decent pitcher who seems to have taken full advantage of the fact that a whole bunch of AL hitting talent went to the Federal League in 1914.     

Keefe would eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame, even if he was just getting started in 1880.  The other names are almost exclusively upper-echelon Hall of Famers: Greg Maddux, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson and Pedro Martinez each appear twice in the top 20, as does Roger Clemens.  Hall of Famers Bob Gibson, Pete Alexander, Three-Finger Brown and Keefe each show up once.  Other seasons are ones for the ages, if not by eventual Cooperstown cronies: Doc Gooden in 1985 and Zach Greinke in 2015.  

But then there are the four 2020 seasons, Bauer, Beiber, Dallas Keuchel and Yu Darvish.  Darvish and Keuchel are both fine pitchers - Keuchel won the CYA a few years ago and Darvish is actually the all-time career leader in K/9, in case you didn't know (I didn't) - but neither of them is going to get a plaque in Cooperstown someday.  

For that matter, if you look at the top 50 seasons all time in ERA+, there are five(!) of them from 2020, since Dinelson Lamet also makes the cut, tied at #39 with Greinke's Cy Young year of 2009.  Only four other seasons appear twice on that list, and only one before 2020 appeared three times: That was 1997, when Pedro, The Big Unit and the Rocket all had incredible seasons at the same time.  And we have our suspicions about how the 34-year old Clemens pulled that off...  

Seems odd, right?  We've got stats going back to 1876 - 146 years! - and 5 of the top 50 pitcher-seasons all come from this year?  Are we in some kind of pitching renaissance??  Will we all one day tell our grandchildren how we once saw the great Dinelson Lamet pitch the same year as Trevor Bauer and Dallas Keuchel????  (Well, we didn't really see them, nobody did, since we were all stuck at home all year, but you know...)  

Of course not.  

Welcome to Small Sample Size Theatre! 

These are all, or at least some of them must necessarily be, a mirage of the shortened season.   Just like Keefe's truncated 1880 campaign, which has topped the list ever since there was a list of single-"season" adjusted ERA leaders, many of these appearances are here only because they were not forced to pitch a full season.  Nobody started more than 13 games in 2020.  Bauer started only 11.  It was basically a third of a season, maybe a smidge more.  As good as they are, it can be all but assured that, had they another ~20 starts to make in 2020, Some of those five pitchers would no longer have been on that list of the top 50 ERA+ seasons in MLB history.  Lamet was an unaccomplished prospect working his way back from season-ending surgery.  Keuchel had pitched to a cumulative 3.77 ERA in four years since he won the CYA.  They certainly would have fallen back to the pack if given the chance.  

Might Trevor Bauer have done so too?? 

Coming into 2020 Bauer had, shall we say, a checkered past.  Entering the 2018 season he had a fairly pedestrian 4.36 ERA, equating to a 99 ERA+, in 728 innings across six MLB seasons, including the previous four as a rotation stalwart for Cleveland.  It was a pretty good sample size, indicating that Bauer was a LAIM, but not much more.  

Then in 2018, he seemed to have turned a corner.  He was among the league leaders in Wins, ERA, strikeouts and a bunch of other stats when he got hit by a comebacker off Jose Abreu's bat in mid August and missed a month and change with a stress fracture in his leg.  Upon his return he pitched only 9.1 innings across three games, as the team didn't want to risk reinjuring him since they had basically wrapped up their division in mid-August.  Bauer pitched in relief in three postseason games, giving up three earned runs in four innings, including taking the Loss in the deciding Game 3 of the ALCS against Houston.  (That was a Cleveland home game, so presumably Houston did not get any help from the rubbish receptacles.)     

His 2019 season was more up and down.  He pitched very well in April (5-2, 2.45 ERA) then in May, hmmmnot so much (1-5, 5.50, and also 7 unearned runs) .  He was back to form in June (4-1, 3.06 ERA), was doing OK in July, and despite a few clunkers among his usual quality starts in those two months, was having a decent year.  Coming into his last start in July, he had a 9-7 record and a 3.49 ERA, with 179 K's in 152 innings, including 15 Quality Starts in 23 outings.  Pretty solid numbers, if not the type that win any awards.  

But then, this happened:

And that bit of long-toss over the centerfield fence, as you may know, was the last pitch he would ever throw for Cleveland.  This outburst, not to mention all the times he'd gotten into trouble on social media, and for berating fans who criticized him, gave Cleveland all the excuse it needed to rid itself of him.  The Tribe suspended and then promptly traded him to the Reds (with the Padres) for Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig, among others.    

Bauer had a few decent starts for Cincinnati down the stretch in 2019, but overall pitched to an ERA of 6.39 in a Reds uniform that year.  They skipped his last start of the season against the lowly Pirates, who finished with 93 Losses and the 11th worst average runs scored per game.  

2020 Hindsight:

Amazingly, in 2020 Bauer came back and pitched remarkably well, albeit in about a third of a full season.  You would have to assume the law of averages might have brought his ERA back up closer to his career mark in the ~4 range if he'd had the rest of the season to pitch, though it presumably still would have been a good year.  

Additionally, for the pitching he did accomplish, consider his competition.  Remember, in 2020 there really was no "National League" and "American League", not until we got to the playoffs.  The Reds played in the "Central Division" consisting of only the 10 AL & NL Central teams, and 9 of those 10 teams were among the dozen worst offenses in MLB by average Runs Scored/Game, the lone exception being the White Sox (5th best).  

Among those 11 starts, Bauer had:

  • Two against the Cubs, who despite winning the NL Central, had the 11th lowest runs scored average in MLB.  He was 1-1 with 3 runs allowed in 13 innings against Chicago.  
  • Two vs. the Tigers, the 8th worst offense in MLB.  He allowed one run in 13.1 innings and fanned 20.  
  • Three vs. the Brewers, the 4th worst offense in MLB.  He was 2-1 with six runs allowed in 20.1 innings and 32 strikeouts.  
  • One start against the Royals, the 5th worst offense in MLB (7 shutout innings, 9 K's, no balls thrown over the CF fence), and...
  • Two starts against the Pirates who had the worst offense in MLB.  He allowed two earned runs in 12.2 innings with 19K's, though he lost one of those starts due to three unearned runs.  

Alas, he did not get a chance to face his former team in Cleveland, who had the 6th worst run production in MLB last year.  The only start he had in the regular season against a team that could actually hit was against the White Sox in September.  He gave up two runs in seven innings and struck out five, but took the loss because the Reds had the third worst offense* in baseball last year by Runs/Game, and they scored no runs at all against the Pale Hose pitchers, including Keuchel.  

* In terms of batting average, the 2020 Reds were one of the worst hitting teams in MLB history.  The team's collective .212 batting average was the lowest for a "full season" by a team since the Dead Ball Era.  And it gets worse, believe it or not: Because the The Great American Ballpark is a pretty good hitter's park, their overall offense was actually helped by it!  They hit just .204 on the road with a .360 slugging percentage.  They're like a whole team of Mike Zuninos.   

The only teams who even come close to that hitting ineptitude since 1910 are generally expansion/relocation franchises or historical anomalies:

  • In 1963, both the Mets and Colt 45's, recent expansion franchises, hit .220 or worse. 
  • The 1972 Texas Rangers, in their first year as the transplanted Washington Senators (Part II!) collectively hit .217 and had one player with double digit homers: Ted Ford with 14.  The entire AL hit .239 that year and the league owners voted to implement the DH for 1973.  Ted Williams retired permanently from managing.  
  • The 1968 Yankees hit just .214 in the Year of the Pitcher, though they were 5th in the AL in homers so the offense wasn't really as awful as the batting average would suggest.  Mickey Mantle hit .237 that year and then retired.  That roster also contained several players who would eventually find more success as a manager and/or GM than they ever did as a player, specifically Mike Ferarro, Bobby Cox, Dick Howser, Gene Michael, and the father of Ruben Amaro, Jr., but sadly none of them hit a lick that year.  
  • And...ummm...I feel like I'm forgetting somethi...
  • ...Oh! And also the 2020 Rangers, Cubs and Pirates, all of whom hit .220 or worse.  

Again, Small Sample Size Theatre!  31 teams in all of MLB history have hit .220 or worse for the season - only 11 since the dawn of the 20th century - and four of them were this past year!  So did Bauer and the others pitch so well because their competition couldn't hit?  Or was their competition simply overmatched by the incredible talent of Bauer et. al?  Chicken or egg...egg or chicken?  I suspect we won't know until we get to see another full season of baseball this year.  

Anyway, despite their historically anemic offense, by a quirk of the COVID schedule, the Reds managed to make the postseason.  Bauer pitched well in the NLDS, allowing only 2 hits and no runs in 7 innings and change, with 12 K's.  Unfortunately, the Reds lost 1-0 to the Braves in the 13th inning, and then got shut out again the next day, 5-0, becoming the only team in history not to score any runs at all in a postseason series.    

So there are technically two data points from 2020 suggesting that Bauer can succeed against stiffer competition.  

Moreover, before he got hurt in 2018, he had stretches of real brilliance.  His last 11 starts before the Abreu comebacker consisted of a 7-1 record and 93 K's in 72 innings with a 1.62 ERA, numbers very similar to those he put up in 2020, and not very different from the rest of his 2018 season to that point.  He pitched well that year against the Yankees, Astros, Twins, Rangers, Cubs and A's, all teams that could hit, in addition to beating up on the likes of the Royals and Tigers.  

Deeper Down The Numbers Rabbit-Hole...

Bauer's Statcast and batted ball data for 2020 show some interesting things.  He had the lowest line drive percentage of his career (17.8%, compared to 22% for his career) as well as the lowest pull percentage (35.4%, compared to 41.2% for his career).  He also had the highest launch angle (20.9 degrees, well above his 13.4 degree career average) and the lowest ground ball percentage of his career, 0.72, way below his career mark of 1.12, which is odd, as you would think allowing a higher percentage of fly balls would have allowed more runs, not fewer, especially in that ballpark.  His home run rate was right in line with his career marks.   

He had the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career, which makes some sense when you consider that he spent most of his time pitching against teams who couldn't hit.  But more to the point of explaining how all those fly balls and line drives did not turn into runs, his batting average on balls in play (i.e. when he didn't allow a walk, homer or get a K) was a paltry .215, way below both his own career average of .294 and the MLB average of .292.  

That .215 BABiP also happened to be the second best in the majors, behind only fellow "Central Division" opportunist Kenta Maeda, who clocked in at a .208 BABiP.  Any guesses who Maeda faced the most?  That's right: 3x each against Detroit and Cleveland, 2x against Milwaukee and once against Pittsburgh.  He also faced the White Sox twice, allowing 2 earned runs in 5 innings each time.  He finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting.  

With Beiber, Bauer, Darvish and Maeda, the #1 and #2 spots in both the AL and NL Cy Young voting all pitched against the same (apparently) impotent competition.  Both Beiber and Darvish had only two of their 12 starts against a team that was not in the bottom ~1/3 of the majors in run scoring, the White Sox, of course.  Darvish allowed only one run in 14 innings, while Beiber allowed 4 runs in 11 total frames, getting a no-decision each time.  

All Ahead Full-Impulse Bauer!

Dodger Stadium is still a pretty forgiving pitcher's park, so it could mask any failings on Bauer's part, at least as regards his pitching.  But if he gets lit up on the road a few times (recall the hitter's parks he'll frequent in Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Houston) will we see the old Bauer's temper tantrums again?  Will the fans hold back their ire in 2022 for a man making $47 million a year if he starts serving up longballs?  Will he blow up at someone on Twitter again, alienate teammates or journalists, or otherwise make himself less than welcome during his tenure?  

Probably.  But if he can keep pitching like he did in 2020, nobody in Dodger Town will mind all that much. And if not, at worst he'll be gone before Joe Biden's term in office is over.  Seems like a pretty good deal for both sides.     


Stumble Upon Toolbar

01 October 2020

Pitching Leaders and MVPs and Cy Youngs for the East, West and Central

 As I mentioned yesterday, the way MLB chose to set up its schedule for 2020 effectively means that there really was no true National League and American League.  Normally it makes sense to have the Yankees competing for a playoff spot with the White Sox and the A's and other Junior Circuit teams because they are all in the same league, and face much of the same competition.  

But with the 2020 rules, teams from the East, Central an West divisions in each league only faced each other and the corresponding division in the other league.    The Giants are sitting home this October and watching the Astros - who had the same record against the same competition - advance a step closer to the World Series.  The Twins had the best record among all the Central teams, and yet found themselves as a #3 seed, playing #6 seed Houston, which had a losing record.  It would be like allowing the 103-win 1954 Yankees to face the 111-win Indians in the World Series because the New York Giants only won 97 games, against a completely separate slate of teams.  

Anyway, the players, too, should be rewarded for leading their competition in whatever statistical categories they did.  Mike Trout, for example, should now have his first home run title to go along with all the other amazing things he's done in his career, since his 17 homers led all players in the West this year.  But alas, Luke Voit hit 22 (against all different teams and pitchers) so it's not to be.  

Anyway, we covered most of that yesterday.  

But what about the pitchers?

You surely already knew about how amazing Shane Beiber was this year, leading the "AL" in all three triple crown categories, Wins, ERA and K's.  As it happens, he led the Central "League" in all three of those as well as both Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) and and Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR).  

Yu Darvish led both the actual NL and the true Central with the same 8 Wins.  Gerrit Cole led the East with 7 Wins, and Marco Gonzales of the Mariners and Zach Davies of the Brewers also both had 7 Win for the year, which led all comers in the West.  

You may have known that Jacob DeGrom had another Cy Young-worthy year, and he indeed led the East in both ERA and strikeouts (but not Wins, because he still pitches for the Mets.)  You may not realize, however, that the leader for the West is not Clayton Kershaw or some big name, perennial superstar, but a relative unknown.  Dinelson Lamet, the Padres' pitcher who compiled a 10-13 record and a 4.37 ERA in parts of the 2017 and 2019 seasons - straddling a year-plus missed due to Tommy John surgery - led the West in ERA and strikeouts, though he went just 3-1.  Heck, even DeGrom won four!  

The Saves leaders were remarkable in that none of them ever led their leagues in Saves before.  Kintzler had been a closer in the past, but had struggled since 2017 while bouncing from the Twins to the Nationals to the Cubs to now the Marlins.  Brad Hand was the closer for the team that won the AL Central, and has been a pretty good closer for a number of years.  Liam Hendricks anchored the A's bullpen as they were the only team in the AL West with a winning record.   

And when you get to b/fWAR, again you see some familiar names: DeGrom, Lamet, Bieber, of course.  But also Zac Gallen, who went just 3-2, but fanned 82 batters in 72 innings with a 2.75 ERA while pitching half his games in the thin, hot air of Arizona.  Antonio Sentzatela ties Gallen for the lead in the West with 2.8 bWAR, which you might not guess from his decent-but-not-extravagant 5-3 record, 3.44 ERA and only 41 strikeouts in 73 innings.  

Hyun Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69) wasn't just the best starter on the Blue Jays staff, he was practically the only good starter for them until they traded for Taijuan Walker.  And also he led all pitchers in the East in bWAR.  

The Real Awards Winners:

If the annual awards were given based on the players' actual competition instead of their traditional leagues, these are who I think might deserve them:

Cy Youngs:

DeGrom led the East in ERA, K's and fWAR.  Beiber led the Central in the same, plus Wins AND bWAR, and will likely win the actual AL Cy Young Award.  Dinelson Lamet led the West in ERA and K's, as we discussed, plus fWAR. 


Freddie Freeman led the East in Runs scored, bWAR and fWAR.  Bieber deserves all the accolades in the Central, though you couldn't go wrong giving the trophy to one of the Joses, Abreu or Ramirez.  In the west, Mookie Betts was head and shoulders above the rest.   

Rookie Pitchers:

In the East, the Braves' Ian Anderson went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA in half a dozen starts, which normally would not be enough to garner consideration for an award like this, but this year, that was half the season.  

In the West, Tony Gonsolin made eight starts and had a 2.31 ERA to go with his 2-2 record and 46 strikeouts in as many innings.  

But the real story is Devin Williams, who only pitched 27 innings in relief, but he was amazing in all of them.  He struck out more than half of all the batters he faced - 53 K's out of 100 batters - and had a 0.33 ERA, which is the lowest ERA in a season by a major league pitcher with at least 25 innings under his belt in over 110 years!  (Someone named Earl Moore allowed zero earned runs in 26 innings for the Phillies in 1908.)  

So there you have them, the leaders and awards if life were fair, which it is not.  

Stumble Upon Toolbar

29 September 2020

2020 Playoff Teams and Batting Champs, by Region Instead of Leagues

This was a weird year.  

In an effort to minimize travel, and thereby minimize potential exposure to COVID-19, Major League Baseball implemented an odd, 60-game schedule that allowed teams only to play the other four teams in its own division and the five teams in the corresponding geographical division in the opposite league.  This means, for example, that the Yankees played both the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins, but not the Tigers or the Indians, who are both obviously a lot closer, not to mention in their actual league.   

Additionally, as another concession to the disease and its effects on us all, we have a new, 8-team-per-league postseason format in which the winners from each division and their runners up all make the postseason, plus the two teams with the next best records.  This gives us not one but two teams with losing records (the Brewers and the Astros) who actually have a chance to win the World Series.  

Which sucks.

The decisions on who makes the playoffs are, in themselves, somewhat nonsensical.  Here are the three actual in-practice regional quasi-leagues this season (East, Central and West) and how they stack up against each other.  The teams in bold are the ones going to the actual playoffs.  

You can probably see a couple of things wrong with this picture right away.  Almost everyone from the Central got in (7 of 10 teams), while the Phillies, for example, have almost as good a record as the Astros and Brewers, whom they never played.  If MLB had chosen instead to take, say, six teams from each regional league, and give two teams a bye for the first round or something like that, instead of doing it the way they did, Philly might be in the playoffs right now instead of one of those teams.  Not that they would deserve to be, but still.  

Furthermore, the Giants had the exact same record as the Astros, against the same competition, but did not make the playoffs.  Granted, their head to head records (Houston won two of three) would likely have given the advantage to the Astros anyway, but if MLB had chosen instead to take the best five teams from each region, plus one more to round out the 16  - which probably would have been more fair -  then the Giants would have been in and the Brewers out.  And the Phillies would still be watching the playoffs from their couches, as they should be.  

As it is, in this reality, the teams will all play a three-game series, entirely at the home stadiums of the higher seeded teams in the first round.  Then, if they get past that, they will play the ALDS and NLDS at neutral sites in California and Texas, as shown below.  As a result, we have a playoff picture that is murkier that it has ever been, heading into the first day of competition.  

Another problem with this format is that the seeding was done based on division winners and runners up getting the highest seeds, rather than by best overall record.  So the Twins are a #3 seed, even though they had the best record among the teams against whom they actually competed. They're playing the Astros, who had a losing record, but are seeded above both the White Sox and the Jays, both of which had winning records, because the TrAshtros finished second in the AL West, which was pretty awful outside of Oakland.  

Part of the reason for this format is that the shortened season and limited competition sort of inhibits our ability to tell how good a team is.  Sure, Gerrit Cole seems to be the ace the Yankees signed for a bajillion dollars in the offseason, but he was 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA against teams that did not make the playoffs (Phils, Sawx, O's and Nats), and 2-2 with a 4.10 ERA against teams that did (the Braves, Rays and Jays).  How would he have fared against the A's, or the Twins?  We may never know, especially if the streaky Yankees can't advance past the first round.  

But I was curious to see who would have led their respective "regional leagues", and more important perhaps, who might have "won" the awards if the players were being compared to their regional peers this year instead of to players they never faced until the postseason, or maybe not at all.  I'll look at the position players today and will save the pitchers for tomorrow.

Position Players:

So here are your hitting leaders!  

Luke Voit and DJ LeMahieu would still have their respective crowns, but Tim Anderson and Donovan Solano would also have won batting titles.  

Interestingly, LeMahieu takes the title over Anderson in real life this year, the reverse of 2019, which marks the first time since 1956-57 that the same two players have finished #1 and #2 in the AL batting title race, albeit not in the same order each year.  

At that time it was Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams, and of course Mickey won the Triple Crown in 1956, including his only batting title and the first of his three MVPs.  Williams hit .388 a year later and won the "slash line triple crown" (leading the AL in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage) but finished 2nd in the MVP coting for the 4th time, each time losing to a Yankee (twice to DiMaggio, once to Mantle and once to Joe Gordon).  

Good times!  Anyway, back to 2020...

Manny Machado would have led the West in RBIs!  Mike Trout in homers!  In the Central, Jose Abreu would have two of the three triple crown pillars all to himself, instead of the just the AL RBI crown.  

Donovan Solano seems to have followed the Gio Urshela path to becoming a major league regular.  Both were signed as amateur free agents as teenagers from Colombia.  Both bounced around multiple organizations for many years, primarily as a glove-first backup infielder.  And both somehow just learned how to hit in their late 20s.  Urshela famously filled in for the injured Miguel Andujar, and has hit .314 with 27 homers in 650 plate appearances the last two seasons, while remaining a plus defender at the hot corner.  Solano, meanwhile, has hit .328 with 28 doubles and 7 homers in over 400 at-bats the last two seasons, and by rights should now have a batting title to his credit.  

Jonathan Villar is also an interesting case: He was traded from the Marlins to the Blue Jays for a PTBNL in mid-season, and stole a total of 16 bases.  (The Jays sent Griffin Conine to Miami to complete the trade, apparently having decided that having four sons of former MLB or international baseball stars on their roster was enough.)  On paper it looks like Villar amassed fewer than 10 steals each in the AL and the NL, but in reality, he stole more bases than anybody he played against in the eastern "League".  His 16 steals were one more than Trevor Story had, and yet Story has some black ink on his ledger, for leading the Senior Circuit, whereas Villar does not get credit for the second time he led his competition in steals (he had 62 in 2016 with Milwaukee, which easily led the NL).        

I have also listed the Wins Above Replacement leaders from both Baseball Reference (bWAR) and Fangraphs (fWAR) as well as the position players who I thought might be considered the Rookie of the Year for each region.  In this case, the bWAR and fWAR in two of the three regions both agree on Freeman and Betts.  Mookie Betts leads both WAR types, both in the NL and in the "west" thanks largely to his stellar defense in addition to his excellent hitting and base running skills.  Despite not leading the West in any of the individual stats (he hit .292 with 16 HR and 10 steals), he appears to have been the best overall player, in his or any division or league.   

As for the Central, if the BBWAA were deciding they would probably give it to Abreu, who led middle America in both homers and RBI.  But Jose Ramirez essentially carried the entire Cleveland offense, and played stellar defense at the hot corner to boot (or, you know, not to boot, which is what you're trying to do when you play third base), so I might give the MVP to him if I had the chance.  

And Now for the Rookies...

EAST: Alec Bohm did not play the whole year but when the Phillies called him up, he hit .338 in 44 games with gap power (11 doubles, 4 HR) and didn't totally embarrass himself on defense.  Only one MLB rookie with at least 160 at-bats has hit better than that in a season since Ichiro burst on the scene hitting and AL leading .350 in 2001.  (Trea Turner hit .342 in 307 at-bats in 2016.)  Maybe if the Phillies can upgrade some of that dumpster fire of a bullpen of theirs, they'll have something to build on next season.  OK, probably not.  

CENTRAL: Luis Robert hit just .233, but keep in mind that the major leagues as a whole hit just .245, the lowest mark since 1972 (.244), which was so terrible that half of the owners voted to implement the DH and old people have been whining about it ever since.  Also keep in mind that Robert hit 11 homers and 8 doubles, stole 9 of 11 bases in just 202 at-bats, and played stellar defense in center field.  Extrapolate that out to a full season and you're talking about a Gold Glove rookie knocking on the door of the 30-30 club.  

WEST: Kyle Lewis is another rookie centerfielder, albeit not as good defensively as Robert.  He also hit 11 homers, and hit .268 and took a walk more than once every other game, giving him the best OBP among rookies in the AL.  

Tomorrow I'll look at the pitchers and see who I think should win the MVP and Cy Young awards for each region.   

Stumble Upon Toolbar

27 September 2020

The 2020 Yankees: So Streaky, Even Facing the Twins May Not Save Them...

People sometimes talk about a team being "consistently inconsistent," meaning that they never seem to string together a winning (or losing) streak of more than a few games.

The 2020 Yankees are, I think, better described as "inconsistently consistent," i.e. that they seem consistent for a while, and just when you think you know who they are, they do a 180.  

Here is a schematic of their season results:

Green markers, above the reference line, are Wins, and red ones are Losses, with the margin of victory (or defeat) indicated by the size. The bar is capped at 10 runs, so the Yankees' 20-6 win against the Jays looks just like their 13-2 win the next night and their 12-1 win earlier this week.  

You can see the problem.
  • They won 8 of their first 9.
  • Then they lost 5 of the next 7. 
  • Then they won six in a row.  
  • Then they lost seven in a row.  
  • Then they won 4 out of 5. 
  • Then they lost 7 of 8.  
  • Then they rattled off 10 straight wins(!), which included sweeping Toronto, outscoring them 43-15 in a 3-game set, and setting a new record with 19 homers in a series. 
  • And now they've lost five of their last six, despite having most of the team back and ostensibly healthy.  

Somehow, despite finally enjoying the presence of Gleyber Torres, and Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton, and Urshela and LeMahieu and Aaron Hicks - all players who have spent some time on the injured list this season, some more on it than off - the Yankees still have not been able to stave off either the Blue Jays or the Marlins.

The Jays, despite being four games over .500, have actually been outscored a little this season (292-303). Similarly, the Marlins are two games over .500 but have actually been outscored a LOT this season (254-293). Two teams that not only shouldn't come close to making the playoffs in a "normal" year, but probably shouldn't even have winning records this year, have both clinched a playoff berth at the Yankees' expense in two consecutive nights.  It was hard to watch.

I dunno what any of this means, but I find it interesting, and a little disconcerting heading into the playoffs. How can a team that can't even beat the Marlins, let alone the Tampa Bay Rays, an actual good team, win a championship? 

I mean, obviously the Dodgers would have to be the favorite, but the Dodgers have notoriously choked in several postseasons since their last World Series win in 1988, and especially with the bizarre way the playoffs are set up this year, you would have to think it's anybody's game.  

As things stand now, the Yankees could face the Twins in the first round*, which under normal circumstances would be a guaranteed win. For one thing, the Twins have not won a playoff game since 2004, which was three presidents ago. It was so long that Destiny's Child was still together. So long that the iPhone was still almost three years away. So long ago that Hilary Duff was the most searched name on AOL. Also, AOL was still important.   

*Sorry, I wrote most of this before the final couple of games of the season, and it now looks like the Yankees will have to face the Indians in the first round.  So, take the rest of this post for what you will.  Maybe the Twins will somehow beat the Astros and the Yankees can face them in the ALDS or something.  

Second, in case you hadn't heard, the Yankees have owned the Twins for the better part of the last two decades. The Yankees are an astonishing 119-39* against Minnesota since 2002, including 16-2 in the playoffs, spanning five different series and a Wild Card game. They have won more than 75% of their games against the Twins, which is the best record any team has against anybody over that span, and might be the best record any team has ever had against another team over so long a time. To be fair, the Yankees and Twins have not played each other this year because of the weird COVID rules, so it's hard to know how they match up in 2020. But still.  Winning more than 3 out of every four contests for 18 years???

 How dominant is that? Here are two comparisons:

1. The 1936-53 Yankees vs. Browns 

Back in the so-called Golden Age of Baseball (really just the Golden Age of New York, specifically New York Yankee, Baseball), the St. Louis Browns were a perennial doormat in the Junior Circuit. During their last 18 years in St. Louis, they won barely 40% of their games overall, and that includes three winning seasons, so you can surely imagine how awful they usually were in the other ones. They were so terrible that the owners thought they could make more money in Baltimore, which had not had a franchise since 1902. They lost 100+ games five times and 90+ games six other times. 

Sure, they went to a World Series in 1944, but that was still during WWII, when a lot of the best players were wearing olive and khaki uniforms instead of pinstripes or gray flannels. That team only won 89 games in the regular season, and had only two players with double digit homers, one who hit .300, and one with 100 RBIs.  

Other than Vern Stephens at shortstop, the lineup was pretty forgettable, as was the pitching staff.  About half of the players were out of MLB by 1945 or '46, pushed out by the players returning from military service. Many had never been in MLB before the War, or had only come out of retirement when younger, healthier and better players were conscripted to fight the Nazis. 

In 1945, the Browns were so desperate they tried a one-armed outfielder named Pete Gray.  Later, with Bill Veeck at the helm, they hired a midget for one game, as a promotional stunt, to try to boost attendance. They once played a game with the fans giving managerial advice via placards that were handed out at the gate, and they brought 45-year old Satchel Paige out of retirement.  All of that happened in 1951.  Within about a month.  They were bad. 

Small in stature...but also in attendance. And winning percentage. 

Meanwhile, in that same 18-year span (1936-1953) the Yankees won 13 AL pennants and a dozen World Series. They developed eleven future Hall of Famers, not to mention many other stars.  They had a winning record every year, and finished lower than third just once, in 1945, when the likes of Tuck Stainback  and Mike Garback manned CF and catcher instead of Joe DiMaggio and Yogi Berra, who were in the service.  But otherwise, they were a perennial juggernaut, and a regular winner.  

Imagine almost two decades in which the same team won, on average, two out of every three World Series. That's baseball (Suzyn) in the "Golden Age". 

Anyway, those Yankee teams faced the lowly Browns 22 or 23 times per season - there were only eight teams in the AL at the time - and regularly trounced them, amassing a 272-124 (68.7%) record against them in that time. And even that winning percentage is well shy of how dominant the Yankees of the 21st century have been against Minnesota - which has actually had some pretty good teams - since 2002. 

B. The 1998 & 1927 Yankees vs. The Field

Or, to look at it another way, the 1998 Yankees, widely considered one of the greatest baseball teams of all time, went 114-48 in the regular season and 11-2 in the playoffs, winning the first of three straight championships. If there is another claimant to the title of Greatest MLB Team ever, it is perhaps the Yankees' 1927 Murderers Row squad, who went 111-44 in the regular season and then swept the Pirates, 4-0, in the World Series. And even those teams "only" won 71.4% and 72.8% of their games, respectively, including their postseason heroics.

The Twins are at the bottom of the pile, obviously.

The Yankees' winning percentage against the Twins since 2002 (75.3%) would equate to a 122-Win regular season team, which no team in history has come close to achieving. So the 2002-2019 Yankees have actually been better against the Twins than either the 1927 Yankees or the 1998 Yankees were against, well, everybody.  

Of course, this Yankees team is neither those.  The 1927 team famously used only 25 players on its roster the entire season.  Literally nobody got hurt, ever, whereas these 2020 Yankees can't seem to stay of the injured list for more than a week.  The 1998 Yankees lost more than three in a row only once all season (they had a 4-game streak in August), and only lost three in a row three times all year.  

But this 2020 team' propensity for being maddeningly unlike, well, itself from one week to the next could spell doom for them in the playoffs.  They'll likely be on the road against the Twins for that 3-game series, were they have only a 11-18 record (compared to 21-8 at home).  Moreover, the Twins are 23-6 at home this season, so this could be the year the curse of Tom Kelly (??) is finally broken.  

Or, the fact that the Yankees have been pretty terrible this week might indicate that they're ready to go on a tear, and sweep through the early rounds of the playoffs.  It's anybody's guess.  That's why they play the games.  


Stumble Upon Toolbar

18 August 2020

Tatis' Grand Slam, and Writing about Unwritten Rules


I dunno if y'all heard about this one, but Fernando Tatis hit two homers! The second one when his team was already leading by quite a little piece! A lot of people were really upset about this, apparently. Fernando Tatis owes the pitcher an apology! The nerve! Hitting a grand slam - his second homer of the game! - when his team already had a significant lead! How *dare* he??

Oh, wait, No, not last night.

*This* game, from 1999.

In that game, Fernando Tatis SENIOR hit two homers, actually two grand slams, IN THE SAME INNING, both off Chan Ho Park of the Dodgers. In Sr.'s case, they had a 7-2 lead in the third inning - due largely to his first grand slam of the inning - and would go on to win 12-5.

Actually, now that I think of it, nobody told him he should have laid down and coasted after that first homer. MLB actually celebrates it! Someone writes a story and shows the video every year on the anniversary. Sure, it was a smaller lead, earlier in the game, and he swung at a 3-2 pitch (his first one came on a 2-0 pitch), but still. The parallel is there at some level.

OK, it's weak, I admit, but I'm trying to make a point here:

Fernando Tatis The First had easily his best season in 1999. In January, his son was born, which was probably pretty exciting. After floundering with the Rangers for a couple of seasons, he'd been traded to the Cardinals at the deadline in 1998 and played well enough down the stretch and in spring training in 1999 to win the starting 3B job outright.  

He rewarded the team by hitting homers in each of his first three games that year, and he continued to hit. The two-grand-slam game was bracketed by games with homers before and after, and by early May his average was over .300, and he was on a 66-homer, 192 RBI pace. Obviously he cooled down after that, but overall, he would hit .298 with 34 homers, 104 Runs and 107 RBI as a 24-year old. He even stole 21 bases and walked 82 times!

All would turn out to be career highs, as he was never fully healthy again. Sad face.

He played only parts of the next four seasons, hitting just 37 homers *total* from 2000 to 2003, then missed two whole years, then played a few games with the 4th place Orioles in 2006, then missed all of 2007, and then caught on as a part timer with some forgettable Mets teams (...or anyway I had forgotten them.) in the late 2000s. He won the dreaded Sporting News Comeback Player of the Year award in 2008, but even at that, he hit 11 homers in 92 games and was already 33 years old. His star had passed.

In short, Fernando Tatis The Younger should hit 'em while he can. Life is too short. Baseball careers are too short. For every Ken Griffey or Barry Bonds, a good player whose son would turn out to be one of the all-time greats, there are probably a dozen Tim Raines Jrs and Josh Barfields and Sean Burroughs and Kyle Drabeks who never make much of a mark in the majors, despite the accomplishments of their parents.  Tatis and Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette all look like wonderful young players, the future of MLB. All three have already spend time on the injured list. Anything can happen.

The real problem with these unwritten rules comes out in the quote from Rangers' manager Chris Woodward: 

“I think there’s a lot of unwritten rules that are constantly being challenged in today’s game. I didn’t like it, personally. You’re up by seven in the eighth inning; it’s typically not a good time to swing 3-0. It’s kind of the way we were all raised in the game.”

Except we were not all raised that way.  Apparently in Woodward's home territory in Southern California, and for that matter in Padres' manager Jayce Tingler's original stomping grounds in Missouri, maybe kids are raised not to ever swing at a 3-0 pitch. Even when it looks like a meatball and you've got the bases loaded. Or not to try to hit homers when your team is already winning by several runs.  

Kids in Latin America aren't raised that way. Those cultures tend to be a little less stuffy, a little less concerned about showing each other up. People get that it's a game, and that they're playing ball for a living, and that it's OK to find that exciting. The alternative for so many of them is destitute poverty, so why not get a little psyched if you've found a way out of that??

But suburban American white kids often have it drilled into their heads that they should be calm and dignified and that they should not show up the opposition and that they should "act like they've been there before" even if they haven't. You hit your homer and keep your head down and trot around the bases - not too slow, not too fast - or he'll drill you (or worse yet, your teammate) in retaliation.

Well, Tatis hasn't been there before, and he wasn't "raised in the game" that way. (Plus, apparently he missed the "take" sign. :-/ ) He's 21, and he'd never hit a grand slam in the majors before. He'd never homered on a 3-0 pitch before. When you're that young, it's all new, and when you're that talented, you should be allowed to explore the depths of that talent.

Not for his sake, or anyway not just for his sake, but for ours. The fans. We're the whole reason he's here, he has this job to entertain us. And we want some damn excitement once in a while! This friggin' pandemic is hard enough on all of us without having to suffer through watching a talented youngster take a get-me-over fastball down the pipe on 3-0 with the bases loaded. Take a chance and enjoy it while you can! 

And let us enjoy it a little too.

Stumble Upon Toolbar