tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post5282158887265898289..comments2023-03-28T17:10:03.342-04:00Comments on Boy of Summer: Using Draft Signing Bonuses to Predict MLB Performance?Travis M. Nelsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509345527927276194noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-43541661218559233052009-04-08T18:31:00.000-04:002009-04-08T18:31:00.000-04:00I think you have the direction of causation wrong ...I think you have the direction of causation wrong for Boras's effect on bonuses. Instead of granting Boras some superb skill in fleecing owners out of a couple extra million for draftees, Boras may get higher bonuses for draft picks because the most talented players sign with Boras. I mean he's not getting a gigantic bonus for the Bill Pecotas in the draft. His clients are mostly the studs, and that makes a big difference.<BR/><BR/>Also, while you certainly can find exceptions to the rule that higher bonuses correlate with higher projections or better performance, picking a handful of cases doesn't disprove Silver's contention that bonuses have predictive value. That's like looking at a handful of games where Albert Pujols goes 0 for 4 and concluding he's no good: Invariably those games are going to happen, but we know not to judge based on a few games. What we need to look at is the larger trend based on a much larger sample of picks. That type of investigation is much more solid than looking at a couple of data points. I'd be interested to see what you conclude after looking at more data!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com