tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post434773635866042108..comments2023-03-28T17:10:03.342-04:00Comments on Boy of Summer: Indians' Cliff Lee Wins 20 - But So What?Travis M. Nelsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509345527927276194noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-59866700051649757592010-01-05T11:33:32.237-05:002010-01-05T11:33:32.237-05:00This is an old post, of course, but history has sh...This is an old post, of course, but history has shown that I was not so full of crap after all. After Lee won his 20th game on September 1st, he went just 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in his next four starts. <br /><br />And then won the AL Cy Young Award.Travis M. Nelsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04509345527927276194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-31811978777550847682008-09-03T11:00:00.000-04:002008-09-03T11:00:00.000-04:00That may be, but he's not being compared to Webb o...That may be, but he's not being compared to Webb or CC when we talk about the CYA and his season in context in general. He's being compared to other AL pitchers. Without actually checking, I would guess that Mike Mussina has probably benefited from the same effect, after a sub-par 2007 showing. <BR/><BR/>Roy Halladay, in contrast to Lee, has faced a much higher overall caliber of starting pitcher, which helps to explain why his run support is only 4.73 instead of almost six. Among others, he's had to face Chien-Ming Wang, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Vicente Padilla, Sabathia, Greinke, Rich Harden, Jon Lackey, Joba Chamberlain and Matt Garza 2x each, James Shields and Andy Pettitte. Not all aces, certainly, but most of them better than most of the guys Lee has opposed. Overall, their opposition:<BR/><BR/>Lee: 184-191, 4.46 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.96 K/W<BR/><BR/>Roy: 230-188, 4.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.10 K/W <BR/><BR/>Granted, Lee has pitched slightly better overall, but the weak opposition, and by extension, the huge amount of run support he's gotten, has helped a lot. Give Halladay 6 R/G and he's 22-4 instead of 17-9, and suddenly we've got a real race for the CYA.Travis M. Nelsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04509345527927276194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-13935522790093430032008-09-03T09:36:00.000-04:002008-09-03T09:36:00.000-04:00Your comment about the Aces facing Aces is complet...Your comment about the Aces facing Aces is completely off base. I went through Brandon Webb and CC Sabathia last night and they haven't faced anymore aces that Cliff Lee has. Pitching is based on 5 days rest. Maybe in late August or September they are lining up the rotation closer if you are in the playoff hunt. For the most part it is whoever is scheduled to pitch that day that has the correct amount of rest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-84340542399860898622008-09-02T16:02:00.000-04:002008-09-02T16:02:00.000-04:00Ern, I appreciate your willingness to dialogue. (...Ern, I appreciate your willingness to dialogue. (By contrast, you compatriot from Ohio has taken the unwise tack of resprting to namecalling on a blog on which the comments are moderated. By me. So he's done.) <BR/><BR/>Anyway, I don't think you can say that players always play better when their ace is on the mound. For one thing, Lee wasn't the ace before CC was traded, and CC only got 4.4 R/Game of support. THat's because CC was matched up against the other team's ace a lot, and they couldn't do much for him. Lee has faced a lot of lower-level pitchers this year, because he started out at the bottom of the rotation, not the top. The starters he's faced off against, in reverse order chronologically, are:<BR/><BR/>Clayton Richard<BR/>Chris Lambert<BR/>Zach Greinke<BR/>Jered Weaver<BR/>Scott Richmond<BR/>Matt Garza<BR/>Nate Robertson (ND)<BR/>Livan Hernandez<BR/>Carlos Silva<BR/>James Shields<BR/>Glen Perkins (L)<BR/>John Danks (ND)<BR/>Matt Cain<BR/>Clayton Kershaw (ND)<BR/>Cha Seung Baek (ND) <BR/>Dontrelle Willis<BR/>Sidney Ponson<BR/>Gil Meche<BR/>Scott Feldman<BR/>Edinson Volquez (L)<BR/>Shaun Marcum (ND)<BR/>Chien-Ming Wang <BR/>Jarrod Washburn <BR/>Brian Bannister<BR/>Felipe Liriano<BR/>Chad Gaudin<BR/>Joe Blanton<BR/><BR/>That means that among his 27 starts, he's faced the other team's ace maybe four or five times (Volquez, Cain, Liriano, arguably Wang or Greinke) and in some of those cases, it was the ace of a bad team anyway. lee just has not faced particularly stiff competition this year. <BR/><BR/>Or, more precicely, his teammates have gotten to feast on the soft underbelly of their opponents' rotations while Lee has been on the mound. <BR/><BR/>There are lots of examples of guys who pitched really well but whose teammates didn't "step up the intensity" enough to save him from a lackluster record. Johan and Mark Buehrle last year come to mind. Gil Meche in 2007 was a perfect example. He pitched quite well overall, with career bests of 216 innings and a 3.67 ERA, but since he was the $55 million man, they matched him up against the other teams' aces, and so he went 9-13. After Lee's awful 2007, he came in wiht low expectations, and that helped to fuel the impressive record this year as much as anything.Travis M. Nelsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04509345527927276194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-86608817820533229822008-09-02T16:00:00.000-04:002008-09-02T16:00:00.000-04:00Trav,No doubt, Lee has had a phenomenal season and...Trav,<BR/><BR/>No doubt, Lee has had a phenomenal season and there's no question that he's had some "goodluck" on his side. But isn't that USUALLY the case when athletes are approaching almost never seen before or historical territory. I'm a huge advocate of the "law of averages"......what goes up, must come down. Here, you have a guy who averaged 15 wins/year for 3 years before his blow-up in 2007. Now I'm not saying that every players is going to respond with a historical season the following year after a collapse like Lee's in 2007.....but you could honestly say that "he was due" or "things will even out". In fact, for him to get back on his 3 year average, he'll need another 20 wins next year! The tribe had arguably the best bullpen in the league last year (Borowski, Betencourt, Mastny).......where are they this year? Again, you said it best, "what goes up, must come down". It doesn't happen often, the Tribe (or any Cleveland team at that) has something positive to support. But I guess you NY fans truly don't understand the idea of heartbreak.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-20199316021621832632008-09-02T15:17:00.000-04:002008-09-02T15:17:00.000-04:00I agree with you that the season isn't over till i...I agree with you that the season isn't over till its over. However, he has kept the pace up the entire season thus far so why don't you think he can do it over the next 5 games? As for the White Sox, Lee has already beaten them this year and should have beaten them a few months ago in a game they lost 3-2 and he pitched 8 strong innings. This year's Red Sox team is definitely human and hurting really bad with starting pitching. They also have quite a few lefties in their lineup which always helps. Have you ever played sports before? The points you make about the team are valid. However, everyone that has played baseball knows that you step up the intensity when your ace is on the mound. Those guys are obviously playing harder when Lee is on the mound. A great player makes everyone around him better. That is a phrase that rings true in all sports. So yes the Indians perform better when Lee is on the mound. <BR/><BR/>It sucks if the Yankees don't make the playoffs the final season at Yankee stadium. Should have kept Joe Torre. Skin it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-70758193022886195442008-09-02T14:49:00.000-04:002008-09-02T14:49:00.000-04:00Wow, you Indians fans are really sensitive. Sure,...Wow, you Indians fans are really sensitive. <BR/><BR/>Sure, I'm a Yankee fan, but I'm also a baseball fan, an dI love to see cool stuff like pitchers going 20-2. They're much more interesting to talk about than the Sean Bergmanns of the world. And for the record, Lee's 20-2 is much more impressive than Roger Clemens' 20-3 record in 2001. (Mike Mussina and Freddy Garcia were both better than Clemens that year.) <BR/><BR/>I just question whether he can keep it up. It's a simple matter of "what goes up must come down", or in the case of ERA, the opposite of that. <BR/><BR/>Lee's season has been great, no doubt, but so many things have had to go right for him to get there, his fortunes are almost bound to change. He's only had three blown saves all year even though his team has 19 of them. He's only had three unearned runs this year, though the Tribe averages one about every three games. The Indians have scored more than a run per game over their average when he pitches. And of course he leads the majors in ERA. If any one of those things changes, he could lose a game (or two or three). <BR/><BR/>I'm not coming up with reasons why his season isn't that great, just reasons why it might be wise to temper your expectations for the remainder of the year. If you've got reasons to believe that he can beat the Red Sox and the White Sox and finish somehting like 24-2, feel free to point them out. But don't tell me I'm a stiff with strange hobbies just because you don't like my name. <BR/><BR/>His season HAS been great. It just ain't over til it's over.Travis M. Nelsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04509345527927276194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-28209157492038664582008-09-02T13:50:00.000-04:002008-09-02T13:50:00.000-04:00Did you actually spend this much time digging up i...Did you actually spend this much time digging up information on Cliff Lee's season? The guy is 20 and flippin 2. Of course he owes so credit to his teammates but which pitchers don't. Let me guess Travis you are a Yankees fan blogging about the Indians. You seem like a stiff to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-65024470301149462652008-09-02T13:44:00.000-04:002008-09-02T13:44:00.000-04:00Travis,I actually read the entire article. But th...Travis,<BR/><BR/>I actually read the entire article. But thanks for pointing out that I didn't. Anyone that puts together so much information discrediting Lee's 20 win season must obviously have a problem with it. So why do you? The points that you make about the other 4 pitchers before/after September 1st is completely irrelevant. You make it sound like it is impossible for Lee to finish off a great season. Just because he has been flawless so far doesn't mean he will stumble. It seems to me you are writing an article to justify why Cliff Lee's season is not that great. Are you even an Indians fan? With a name like Travis I could think of a few hobbies that you are involved in....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-77658088400779380292008-09-02T13:37:00.000-04:002008-09-02T13:37:00.000-04:00Ern, did you even read the article? I said he lea...Ern, did you even read the article? I said he leads the AL in Win Shares and the majors in VORP, that 20 wins are a big accomplishment, especially considering today's game. Those are all pats on the back. I just said that some of the credit for those 20 wins goes to his teammates, which is of course a complement to them, and that it's a little premature to start hanging the "historic" label on him. <BR/><BR/>Anyway, thanks for commenting, if not actually reading.Travis M. Nelsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04509345527927276194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3689353.post-15505327114228682952008-09-02T13:15:00.000-04:002008-09-02T13:15:00.000-04:00Hey Travis....you are a total loser bro. I mean c...Hey Travis....you are a total loser bro. I mean come on the guy has gone 20-2 and you can't give him a pat on the back? I know the season has been miserable but don't ruin our one bright spot. My prediction Cliff Lee is going to end the season with a 23-3 record with a 1.98 ERA. So suck on that one Travis!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com