Comments on Boy of Summer: Roy Halladay is Better Than Cliff Lee

"This is called....OVERANALYSIS....Cliff Lee has n...

2008-10-08T07:25:00.000-04:00

"This is called....OVERANALYSIS....Cliff Lee has no control over whom Cliff Lee faces."

The Indians do, to a certain extent. At least with respect to match-ups to some extent.

I'm not alone in thinking that Lee's random extra day's rest kept him from facing Halladay. The Tribe decided to rest him for no reason and that he would go against AAA filler Scott Richmond the next day.

I'm not saying that happened all year... Lee has had a phenomenal year. I personally believe that Halladay's was better.

And why are people referencing the overall average runs scored by the offenses per game? The number of runs scored for AJ Burnett don't help Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee got a fair amount more support than Halladay did.

Cliff Lee's RS: 6.13
Roy Halladay's RS: 4.72

It's very, very close overall. And it will go to Lee based on the W-L record.

I'm a loyal Halladay fan, but I must say with all ...

2008-10-07T21:59:00.000-04:00

I'm a loyal Halladay fan, but I must say with all honesty that this was an off year for Halladay. I have watched Halladay at times where he has gotten run support and then totally exploded the next inning walking a guy, then giving up a hit, and another hit, and another. I thought, "this is not like Halladay". In my eye he doesn't deserve the Cy Young as well as Cliff Lee does because voters expect greater out of Halladay then they do Lee. Nobody expected Lee to win 22 entering 2008. NOBODY.

The Jays and Tribe recently played against each ot...

2008-09-11T15:20:00.000-04:00

The Jays and Tribe recently played against each other. Does anyone know why when Haladay and Lee were matched up against each other Wedges pushed Lee back a day? Halladay ended up losing to Byrd anyway, and Lee pitched against a weak rookie Richmond and won easily.

Both teams may have realistically been out of the race for a long time, but Toronto thinks they have a shot. Mathematically they do I suppose. The Indians know they have no shot, and came to that realization a long time ago.

Again, dude, you're really reaching. Yes, the diff...

2008-09-10T15:32:00.000-04:00

Again, dude, you're really reaching. Yes, the difference between Halladay and Lee isn't as much as Lee's inflated W-L numbers would suggest, but even if you neutralize their records, Lee STILL wins.

You want to argue things outside of their control? How about defense? BTW, Lee's BABIP is actually higher than Halladay's, and yet he still beats him in opponent's OPS. You think Lee likes pitching with Ryan Garko and Casey Blake and Jhonny Peralta and Andy Marte behind him? You don't think he'd rather have John McDonald and Scott Rolen?

No matter how much people try and stretch it, Lee is having the better season. He leads by 17 in PRAA (which is a huge advantage). He leads by 11 in Runs Prevented. He leads in WARP3, he leads by 13 in pitching VORP, he leads in everything, really. And the whole CG argument? Halladay has one more GS and he pitched 2.1 innings of relief. Lee's and Halladay's difference in IP/GS is miniscule, less than a batter per start, and Lee is 2nd in the majors in IP/GS btw; Halladay is 1st, of course.

Cliff Lee has zero "tough losses" and one "Cheap W...

2008-09-10T15:03:00.000-04:00

Cliff Lee has zero "tough losses" and one "Cheap Win" according to ESPN.com's stats page. That's a loose definition, because he's also got a win for allowing 4 runs to KC in 6 IP. Halladay had a similar outing, 4 ER in 6.2 IP to Minnesota, but he got the win, so those two are basically a wash.

Halladay has four tough losses and zero cheap wins, plus a no-decision in which he threw 7 shutout innings against the Pirates.

Edge to Halladay, again, if only slightly.

Cliff Lee has 5 no decisions. one of them he gave...

2008-09-10T14:35:00.000-04:00

Cliff Lee has 5 no decisions. one of them he gave up zero runs in a 9 inning outing. Two of them he gave up 1 run, one he gave up 2 runs.

He could realistically have been 25-2 right now!

Last anonymous:At the start of the year, Lee was t...

2008-09-10T14:19:00.000-04:00

Last anonymous:

At the start of the year, Lee was the 5th starter, so obviously his usage pattern was different. Since the ASB, he has been our clear #1.

Did Wedge hold Lee back against the Mariners so that he could instead face the White Sox because he wanted Lee to face "inferior competition"? Seems like he would have put him out there against the M's if his intent was to inflate Lee's numbers.

Lee has a big lead over Halladay in PRAA, WARP3, WPA, and IIRC Pitcher VORP. He's the better pitcher this year.

I'd like to add that even tho(theoretically) CLee ...

2008-09-10T12:24:00.000-04:00

I'd like to add that even tho(theoretically) CLee doesn't have a say in who he faces, his manager and pitching coach most certainly do! As does Halladay's. There is long history of managers arranging to have their horse face their best competition and Halladay's usage leaves no doubt to this. Lee's looks intentional as well. Nothing wrong with that, but the pattern IS human and should be acknowledged.

Livingston, how in the world is having a lower WHI...

2008-09-10T11:59:00.000-04:00

Livingston, how in the world is having a lower WHIP due to pitching more innings and not due to giving up fewer hits and walks per inning? WHIP is a pretty lame stat anyway. How many hits vs. walks? What kind of hits? All make that stat pretty terrible.

"Isolating the 15 starts not in common is an exaggeration of the overall quality of opposition since the season has to be judged as a whole."

While this is true, I don't believe the case being made is that Halladay is better because of those 15 starts. The argument is that the traditional stats don't tell the whole story because of those 15 starts (and the RS).

Travis, congrates on getting the Wednesday Wangerdoodle link too. You have good posts, I'll admit you're site isn't a regular of mine, but I do read it time to time, and I'm always impressed. Keep it up.

I don't think we should blame or penalize Lee for ...

2008-09-09T19:26:00.000-04:00

I don't think we should blame or penalize Lee for having faced softer competition, just that we shouldn't ignore the fact. Consider these two pitchers:

Pitcher K: 14-6 3.45, 117 K's in 156 IP

Pitcher O: 14-9 3.72, 144 K's in 182 IP

Pretty close, right? Pitcher O is Roy Oswalt, while pitcher K is Kei Igwa, and those are his numbers in AAA this year. Nobody thinks that Igawa is almost as good or better than Oswalt, because we know he hasn't faced the same level of competition. It's an extreme case, but the logic holds. Competition matters.

Oh, and as for dbvader's comment: I'm sorry about that. It's a dark blue background in IE, but in Firefox you get the white, and I can't figure out how to change that.

Isn't the point of objective statistical analysis ...

2008-09-09T18:48:00.000-04:00

Isn't the point of objective statistical analysis to eliminate factors that a player cannot completely control (which is the argument against judging pitchers solely based on wins)?

So, why are we supposed to judge Lee based on another factor that he cannot control at all (the schedule)? Yes, some pitchers do ask to be moved to match up against an ace or managers do it for them. But both Cleveland and Toronto have been effectively out of contention much of the year. That argument would be baseless.

So, we're left with Lee having a lower ERA and higher WHIP than Halladay. The WHIP is largely a factor of IP - Halladay has 8 CGs to Lee's 4 (although they have the same number of CG SHO), giving him 17 more IP than Lee. Both are goign to be well over 200, so neither has been protected from going as far as they could. Lee's walked slightly fewer per plater appearance; Halladay's struck out slight more; Lee's base runner's per 9 is slightly better and he's allowed significantly few HRs. Lee's FIP is about .6 better than Halladay's.

So, using the conventional or unconventional statistical measurements, it is close and Lee wins. Just as judging's someone's season on total wins (like Lincecum), it isn't fair to deduct points for mowing down a slightly weaker competition. Isolating the 15 starts not in common is an exaggeration of the overall quality of opposition since the season has to be judged as a whole.

One factor out of their control that might be fair to consider (since it clearly affected Roy's win total) is run support. But if wins are an exaggerated measurement, then I guess that doesn't matter.

Light blue against a glaringly white background is...

2008-09-09T18:17:00.000-04:00

Light blue against a glaringly white background is not good for the eyes.

I suppose I should add that I'm a huge Jays and Ha...

2008-09-09T17:15:00.000-04:00

I suppose I should add that I'm a huge Jays and Halladay fan, and think your headline "Halladay better than Lee" is a no-brainer.

I just think sometimes the Cy Young goes, not to the best pitcher, but the pitcher who had the best year.

I actually just ran the same thing just now for fu...

2008-09-09T17:14:00.000-04:00

I actually just ran the same thing just now for fun...

In the games Lee and Halladay don't have in common Halladay faced teams with an average of 4.99 runs per game, while Lee's teams scored 4.53 runs per game

Clearly Halladay faced tougher hitters, I'm not sure how to correct for that...I woke up this morning 100% sure Lee deserved the Cy Young. Now I'm not so sure, but put a gun to my head and I'd still choose Lee. What he's done this year is flat out amazing.

This is called....OVERANALYSIS....Cliff Lee has no...

2008-09-09T17:05:00.000-04:00

This is called....OVERANALYSIS....Cliff Lee has no control over whom Cliff Lee faces.

Of course Halladay will face the AL East and those great lineups more often than Lee.

You are really reaching here...any topic can and should be deconstructed to a certain extent. But this is a little much, sorry.